With Radja Nainggolan scoring an 89th minute winner against Napoli on Monday, Juventus have officially won their fifth Scudetto in a row. It did seem like this would finally be someone else’s year, with Juventus’ slow start and all. But what can you do when a team gains 73 points out of a possible 75, going 25 unbeaten? There’s not a lot you can do.
So congratulations to Juventus, but where did it go wrong for Napoli? Well if you had to pin point a moment it would have to be Zaza’s strike when Napoli visited the Juventus stadium. But did Juventus win simply because they’re more experienced in these title run ins?
Game states is a really interesting analytical tool. Because we cannot quantitatively measure ‘heart’, ‘passion’ or ‘bottle’, game states gives us a bit of an insight. Game states refers to the state of the game the two teams are playing (obviously), essentially there are three states, winning, drawing or losing. It can then be broken into my specific categories such as a +2 game state, meaning a team has a 2-0, 3-1, 4-2, etc. lead on the other team.
The turning point for Juventus came with a derby win against Torino on Hallowe’en, before that win Juventus had a measly 12 points from ten games. The game states from these games are pretty shocking.
A quick look at Juventus’ transformation
(Note: Goals against for the losing game status was removed purely for chart aesthetics. For the record in the losing game state Juventus conceded a goal every 292 minutes (one goal). Another note is that this is only ten games and is a rather small sample size)
(Note: The sample size for the losing game state is small because Juventus only spent 28 minutes in a losing state! Conceding exactly one goal.)
Holy crap. Look at that difference.
In pre-Torino, the obvious problem was goals and this was confirmed in by the eye test. In those early games Juventus seemed so sluggish, and when they did fall behind, they rarely seemed like they could stage much of a comeback.
Post-Torino, it looks like Juventus’ absurd defense provided an excellent base for Juventus’ attack to prosper. Remember, this was an attack that had lost Carlos Tevez and Paolo Dybala was still finding his feet (and game time) in Turin. It appears as though there were nerves during the early parts of the season. As pointed out in my first advanced stats piece, Juventus’ defense was really unlucky and heavily underperforming. As Juventus’ backline regressed to their usual level of play, it seemed to elevate the whole team.
I mean, these numbers are scary. They really are. Juventus rarely went for the jugular when in a winning state (we’ll see Napoli’s numbers in a second) but again, it was the defense that did most of the work. In a drawing state, Juventus were rather likely to score a goal, and once in the lead, they just rarely surrendered it.
Juventus’ offensive numbers really aren’t impressive and game states only enforce that Juventus’ success is built on that incredible defense, perhaps more so this year than ever before.
Those pesky Southerners
Damn. Look at that minutes per goals for ratio. But wait, it gets better.
I guess there is beauty in the numbers. While Juventus’ sturdy defense meant a one or two goal lead was enough to see out the game, Napoli seemed to enjoy going for the jugular.
Even when leading by two or more goals, they scored at a rate of 33 minutes per goal! It’s insane and it’s a testament to what a joy to watch they were this year, regardless of them not winning the title. Napoli’s numbers through various game states really are impressive and even their underlying advanced statistics are great.
It’s likely that any other year this Napoli team win the title. What if Pepe Reina doesn’t just flap at Zaza’s strike? These revisions will haunt Napoli fans forever. Not enough people are talking about just how historic this Juventus side are due to their awful start.
Head to head
(Note: Incredibly small sample for -2, probably best to disregard)
As previously mentioned, Juventus were not as ‘jugular cutting’ as Napoli but were a hell of a lot more pragmatic, which again links back to their foundational defense.
(Note: Small sample with Napoli and Juventus’ -2)
Napoli’s defence is still pretty good, especially when they possess the lead in a game, but Juventus’ is different gravy. When in the lead, they rarely ever surrender the lead or give their opponents a chance to get back into the game.
Juventus’ approach could be summed in one word – pragmatic. Like a well oiled machine, Juventus would score and shut up shop for the rest of the game. Mistakes have been ever so rare this campaign and almost every move has seemed incredible calculated, from substitutes to transfer business.
Conclusion
Of course there’s no direct link between game states and ‘experience’, in fact if anything we’ve learned about how Napoli and Juventus’ styles have differed. To be honest, I didn’t think Juventus’ defense was this good and I’m sure their numbers from their past four Scudetto triumphs look a lot like this. As long as this foundational defense stays in place, Juventus are going to keep winning. Even with most of their spine replaced (Tevez, Pirlo, Vidal), this team was still able to go on a historic win even after a slow start. All thanks to the defense.
So in actual fact, maybe it was Juventus’ experience and ‘fight’ that allowed them to stay in the Scudetto race.
As for Napoli, this team was a hell of a lot of fun to watch and I hope their nucleus stays together. This team will definitely be up there next season and who knows, maybe the ‘experience’ from this year’s Scudetto race will invaluable.
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