The latest update from the CIES Football Observatory shows us which players in Europe’s big leagues are most likely to soon play for their country, with some interesting scenarios for the Italian national team.
By: Dominic Ayres
The Italian national team recently completed its round of fixtures at the end of March with a friendly against Germany, when an admittedly experimental Azzurri side suffered a 4-1 humiliation in Munich at the hands of the world champions. Perhaps one of the most telling statistics from the game are those of possession. Germany managed 200 more passes, 200 more touches of the ball, and 55% possession compared to Italy’s 45%. Conte’s 3-4-3, designed to dominate the midfield, failed in this duty – even with the likes of Montolivo and Motta in the centre, the 5 top-rated players for the match according to WhoScored.com were all Germans.
While one game shouldn’t form the basis of dooming a side, there are some lessons to be learned in the summer – as the tournament cycle will reset and attention will traverse to the next intake of players to the national team. Italy are hardly in crisis, but the triumph of 2006 seems a long time ago, and the likes of Okaka would not strike fear into the hearts of international defenders. Without making him a scapegoat, there is something to be said about the presence of young Italian talent in Serie A when a striker playing in the Belgian leagues is called up. However, with Conte moving on to Chelsea, and the recent blooding of the likes of Bernardeschi and Jorginho, there is a sense of transition already in the air. What isn’t immediately apparent, however, is which personnel should be considered.
This is where the CIES Football Observatory’s most recent report comes into the equation. The organisation produces a report on Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues on a weekly basis – the latest of which, in their words, ‘…presents the young players active in the five major European leagues eligible for England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy who are more experienced than current full internationals of these nations at the same age’. The subsequent ‘Experience Capital’ score for each player in each age-range listed highlights the likes of Berardi (90), Romagnoli (72) and Belotti (80) – no surprises there one might think. In fact, you’d be forgiven for thinking that three must have made the senior side at one point or another, given their prominence in Serie A. There are, however, quite a few surprises in the report, too.
Take Luciano Vietto, for example. Holder of an Italian passport, and prior to his circa €20 million move to Atletico Madrid linked with the likes of Napoli, he carries an experience capital score of 97 out of the players born from 1993. This puts him more likely than any other eligible player to be called up to the national side, from a statistical perspective. That said, he is a player based in Spain, who is in the Argentina youth set-up anyway, and offers little different to players of similar age and playing style already in the side – all factors that would suggest a call-up is not in the offing.
Therein lies the limit of reports such as this – there is not always a sensible correlation to be made between club game time and international aptitude. Take for example Rugani (62), who, like Berardi, has already had a call-up for Euro 2016 qualifiers. He’s had limited chances at league level, and thus a lower likelihood at least on a statistical level to play than Leali (67). Given that the Frosinone keeper sits behind the legendary Buffon, and understudies Sirigu and Perin, in a position that is famously less competitive in selection than the outfield, it could be said that the stats don’t stand up to the common-sense filter in this example. Certainly, Gianluigi Donnarumma is already seen as Buffon’s heir-apparent – but by these measures carries a score of just 23. Experience does not always indicate talent.
Compounding this point somewhat is the presence on this list of Bordeaux striker Enzo Crivelli. With a score of 29 he’s considered in this report more likely than Donnarumma to play for the National Side. Perhaps this makes a point about the scarcity of Italian youth talent in the top divisions that a player with caps for the French under-21s has more experience than others born in 1995.
Despite some of the potential limitations to the report, it is on this point that we can draw some additional value when looking at the next generations of Italian footballing talent. Of the 18 players listed, 5 are based abroad. Of the Italian sides who are evidently blooding young talent, joint-top with 3 players each are Milan and Sassuolo. Drawing from information in a previous CIES report, we know that Serie A is a league where 34.7% of players are recruited from abroad. Milan took 41.7% of their squad from overseas clubs, but Sassuolo stand out as unique – 100% of their squad have been recruited from Italy. How significant is this? For starters, they are the only team in Europe’s top-5 leagues to boast such a statistic – even their young Ghanaian Claud Adjapong, debutant in March’s defeat to Juve, is a Modena-born product of the Sassuolo primavera squad.
It’s worth bearing in mind that this recruitment policy is not just about Italian footballers – just about where clubs are recruiting players from. Again, data can only be so significant – it must be remembered Milan have historically had money to spend to attract top talent, and Serie A has generally been a cosmopolitan league, especially in the glory days of the 1990’s. Transfers between clubs of top players were also common, especially considering the moves of Buffon, Nesta, Crespo etc. etc. In the years since, clubs have naturally had to expand their reach overseas to stay competitive – Udinese a prime example – when they haven’t had the resources to take top players from their immediate rivals.
But what can we learn when we start to look at these kinds of reports together with the Italian team in mind? Should Conte’s successor look at the likes of Sassuolo when calling new blood up to the national side? Should they stick to performers in Should experience per age group be considered significant? It will be interesting to see what happens over the course of the next couple of years, especially when qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup kick in.
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