Since the Coppa Italia switched to a one legged final tie in 2008, the finals have all been pretty competitive. However, the 2016 version is being hyped up as an absolute bloodbath.
Milan, who somehow keep appearing to find new ways to hit rock bottom, are going into this game with a coach who wasn’t even in charge when Milan won their semi final, in fact he’s only managed five games for the Rossoneri, winning one.
Of course Juventus, in recent years, have become the example club in Italy and also Europe. The Bianconeri and Rossoneri probably couldn’t be at more opposite ends of the ‘Is this football club well run?’ spectrum.
However, are Milan going to make this final an actual game? Well games this season dictate the answer to be yes, a 1-0 loss away to Juventus was also mirrored by a 2-1 loss at the San Siro, but the games were hardly bloodbaths as this one is being touted.
Potential line-ups
A few interesting on pitch battles here. Milan in a 4-3-3 and Juventus in their classic 3-5-2.
Juventus
With key injuries in midfield, Asamoah will be playing a throwback to his Udinese days while Hernanes fulfills the Marchisio role. I wouldn’t say there is too much worry with this midfield considering who they’ll be coming up against. Pogba will showcase his flexibility by playing in a more advanced role and being given ball carrying and playmaking duties. Dybala will be playing just off of Mandzukic in his almost false nine role. Rugani comes in for the suspended Bonucci.
Milan
Milan are more of an interesting team in terms of their set up today. Brocchi should rightfully ditch the 4-3-1-2 for a 4-3-3 in order to provide some flexibility in dealing with Juventus. The Bianconeri may be more of a centrally focused team than they were in the early Conte days, but their wingbacks are still flexible enough to feature in build-up play when they want to mix it up. With Honda and Bonaventura on the wings, they can help distribute when Juventus attempt to build in wide areas, but can also come centrally into a 4-3-2-1 to help out with an incredibly weak midfield.
When Bonaventura and Honda come centrally, Calabria and De Sciglio will have huge responsibilities when it comes to providing an offensive threat, especially with counters. Even with Juventus’ injuries, the gulf in class between the midfields is staggering, with Montolivo, never the physical specimen, and Andrea Poli being next to useless, Milan’s midfield pressing game is not going to be pretty on the eye, if it exists at all.
Milan’s issues with transitional defense
These problems have existed since Allegri left, it’s probably a mixture of midfield/defensive personnel and not possessing a coach who can rectify this. But this was especially apparent in the Roma game last weekend.
A really simple move here, Locatelli (and other Milan MFers in blue), is trying to build and distribute De Sciglio, except a poor pass is intercepted by Florenzi. A poor mistake from an inexperienced youngster, but watch the move unfold.
Florenzi intercepts the ball and passes it to Salah. Locatelli is doing well to try and close down Salah, but the other MFs have left a tremendous hole in the heart of Milan’s midfield. Bertolacci hasn’t even engaged with the play and his positioning and body stance have given him no hope to track back, and has seemingly not even noticed Strootman (yellow). Roma are completely engaged in their offensive transition within seconds of winning the ball. Whereas Milan are hardly engaged in their defensive transition yet.
Kucka (nearest to Strootman, yellow) has done his best to close down the angle but the space to catch up on was too large. Bertolacci’s complete lack of engagement in this whole transition is bewildering, as he seemed completely unaware that Strootman had such space to run into.
With Romagnoli at left back, Salah was always going to win the foot race. However Milan could have perhaps got an offside call if not for Alex’s bizarre positioning. I assume he was caught in two minds about whether he could beat Salah in a foot race. Ha. The move finishes off with Salah slotting past Donnarumma cooly, with nobody within a few feet of him.
Bertolacci was hopeless, Kucka should’ve probably been deeper and Locatelli shouldn’t have made the mistake. But such bad transitional game, could be detrimental. Especially since when the two sides met in April, Juventus actually struggled to break Milan down, and instead allowed them to attack so Juventus could counter-attack. Similar occurrences tomorrow I assume.
Why this awful transitional game will be an issue tomorrow
Juventus are great at trapping teams into wide areas and initiating pressing traps upon them. As illustrated in last weekends game against Sampdoria.
Juventus did well to cut off the passing lanes (yellow, also Dybala, red). Bonucci (blue) then stepping up to complete the trap and apply pressure to the Sampdoria player, which forces him into a costly mistake.
With the passing lanes closed off, and the Juventus sharks closing in, Sampdoria are forced into a silly mistake. Hernanes plays the Marchisio role admirably, lying deep and picking up on the mistake. Due to Sampdoria players trying to help out with the wide press, Dybala is left on his own. Originally playing there as a component of the pressing trap, cutting off passes between CBs. However I think this picture illustrates how nice Dybala’s role in this team is. Playing that ‘almost as a false nine’ role, Dybala drops between the lines with Mandzukic occupying the CBs.
In arces of space, Dybala is able to turn and score a beauty. Look at the space in Sampdoria’s midfield! Yes they were a man down but imagine Milan, who struggle with basic transition, getting caught in a pressing trap. Scary thoughts for Brocchi.
Other Dybala possibilities
Milan’s pressing leaves a lot to be desired, Pjanic is in yards of space and only the immobile Montolivo is trying to press him. El Shaarawy (green) is making a run behind Alex (who was absolutely hopeless this game). Milan have struggled with mobile strikers all season, even more so with Romagnoli playing at left back, such as in this game.
Again, absurdly poor effort from Milan to even recognise the danger here. Imagine Dybala running behind the Milan defence while Hernanes/Pogba play an over the top ball? Ooft.
Do Milan have ANY chance?
Well, sort of. When the two met at the San Siro in April, Juve walked away with a 2-1 win but it wasn’t the demolition you’d have expected it to be. Milan played their defensive block well, with the midfielders dropping in just in front of the centre backs, neutralizing Juventus’ central attacks.
Mihajlovic also utilised set pieces really well in this game. Specifically targeting Juventus’ young centre back, Rugani, whom will play tomorrow. However, it’s worth noting that Brocchi isn’t nearly the set piece/defensive coach Mihajlovic was.
What I call a ‘distractor’ or a ‘momentum’ corner. Romagnoli runs horizontally, dragging Asamoah, Bonaventura creates uncertainty with a run into the box and the cluster of players in the box run towards the ball.
However, Rugani (yellow) seems to lose his man (Alex, red) and this leaves a clear goalscoring opportunity for Alex who stayed back as the Juventus and Milan players ran to the ball. And Milan took a surprise 1-0 lead.
Another instance where Milan tried to take opportunity of Rugani’s poor marking. The youngster seems completely unaware of Romagnoli lurking behind him as the Milan defender has a free header but fails to score.
Set pieces are often unreliable as goalscoring methods but as we’ve seen all season, Milan struggle to create opportunities in open play. Another great set piece example from the last time these two met came from a free kick.
Again, not a totally creative set piece concept but again, quite effective with Milan’s strategic wall movement. With two Milan players on the edge of the wall, moving behind the Juventus wall so Balotelli’s free kick can exploit this newly created space, forcing a save from Buffon.
So, how is this going to play out?
If Juventus score early, it could get ugly. Juventus are incredibly team when winning, conceding a goal when they’re winning every 231 minutes (hey! I wrote about that here). This would also force Milan to abandon their game play and force themselves to try and create from open play.
I think the main issue here will be how Calabria and De Sciglio play, both haven’t hit the heights that were expected of them this season and prior. But with Milan’s midfield concentrating on combating Juventus’ midfield, with Honda and Bonaventura often dropping centrally, it’ll be up to them to provide width and attack where Juventus have less men.
If Milan can withstand Juventus’ pressure, like they did in April, use set pieces intelligently. Who knows? We might have quite the upset on our hands.
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