There’s a lot of noise around Christmas time, the jingling of bells, presents being unwrapped and people on Twitter laughing at Inter Milan’s attack.
The Nerazzurri currently sit atop the table in Serie A, but currently have the seventh best ranked attack based on face value statistics with 23 goals scored. This severely lacks behind the likes of Napoli, Fiorentina and Roma, with 31, 33 and 32 goals scored respectively. But it is Inter’s astute defense that is leading their title charge, with just eleven goals conceded, the next best belonging to Sarri’s Napoli. In my first statistics piece here, I wasn’t too kind on Inter Milan, but I did predict for their attack to improve, which it has.
But what are the deeper numbers in Inter Milan’s attack? Well, let’s delve into the fun, fun world of football analytics.
Before I go any further, be sure to check out @MC_of_A, he’s essentially the football analytics Jesus. All stats have come from here.
The basics
First of all here is Caley’s Shot Matrix Zone, it’ll come in handy later, trust me. And it’s not as confusing as it looks.
A surface statistic: shots. Straight off the bat we can see that Mancini’s men lag behind the other top six when it comes to sheer volume of shots, with Inter coming in at 224 shots (one behind Frosinone!). However, shots are a bit vague. You could have thirty shots from 40 yard mark while a team has five shots in the penalty area, they don’t hold the same weight in terms of chances of conversion.
Danger zone shots: Shots from the danger zone, which is zones 1-3, the close and central areas of the box. Shots in these zones have the highest chance of being converted and are thus the best kind of shot you can take.
Before the season began a glaring hole in Inter Milan’s team was the lack of a true number 10. It was clear Roberto Mancini was going to utilise a 4-2-3-1 formation, despite lacklustre wingers. Stefan Jovetić was a criminally underused and undervalued player at Manchester City, and it won’t be long before he’s back to his Fiorentina form. But he is still not a number ten, who create chances at the level Inter Milan require. A quote that has stuck in my head is Mancini saying Mateo Kovačić could reach David Silva’s level. And whelp. He moved to Real Madrid in the summer.
But Inter Milan get into the danger zone as well as anyone. They have just as many shots in there as their Scudetto rivals and they have no problem passing into such zones. So why aren’t they scoring as many goals as everyone else?
Inter Milan are not even in the top five for possession % in Serie A. In fact they only average 53% possession of the ball, which for a Scudetto contender is pretty bleak, but what can you expect with such a defensive approach? The midfield pivot of Felipe Melo – Kondogbia is hardly going to be awe inspiring and control a game effectively. Paulo Sousa’s possession football is evidently going to produce more shots from established possession, and Napoli and Juventus’ natural dominance will lead to more possession and subsequently boost their stats in this department.
Inter are around the top of the pack for counter attacking goals, but Napoli and Milan are in the elite tier. For a team that is priding itself on its defensive stability and the confidence it has in its defence to led it to a Scudetto, I’d be expecting more. Okay, yeah, you can not concede. But you’ve got to score goals some way, and in volume, too. Napoli have been doing this to perfection under the mechanical mind of Maurizio Sarri (they’re also the elite possession team, but that’s for another day) and even Inter’s cross town rivals are doing it at an elite rate.
Juventus’ and Fiorentina’s numbers clearly suffer due to being possession teams. As for Roma…much like Inter they’re in attacking purgatory and struggle for an identity.
Hey…something’s up here…
Inter aren’t creating shots from crosses in the danger zone at a particularly staggering rate. I mean, I suppose there’s not a lot of reason to cross to 5 ft 11 Mauro Cardi. And besides, neither of Inter’s regular wingers in Perisic or Ljajic are elite crossers of the ball.
Quick note: Hey Juventus, width is the key to your potential Scudetto win. Buy Cuadrado and play 4-3-3. You are welcome.
Inter aren’t an elite ‘ball on the ground’ team, either. Napoli and Fiorentina lead the pack while Inter are just about league average. Juventus also surprised me until I remembered Hernanes plays #10 for them.
Making sense of the numbers
Inter’s attack is improving as the season goes on, which should actually not be surprising considering three of their ‘top’ four in their 4-2-3-1 were summer arrivals. It naturally takes time for players to grow and learn to play with each other.
There is good news for Inter fans. Roma, Napoli and Juventus are still performing slightly above their xG.
As you can see, Inter have been performing the closest to their xG out of the emerging Scudetto contenders. Juventus have improved almost beyond recognition in recent weeks because their goals may begin to dry up. As for Roma and Napoli, they may come crashing down after the new year, especially if Roma do not sort out their chaotic managerial situation. This is great news for Inter.
The bad news is that Inter’s defence is still over performing, whereas their rivals look like they will improve, specifically Roma and Juventus, Inter look as though they’re going to decline after the year.
This is bad news for Inter. As we’ve seen from the numbers, Inter’s identity involves defensive solidarity and counter attacking football. They lack the technical ability to be a team that dominates possession and creates chances via that. If Inter’s ability to shut down the opposition’s attack regresses to the mean as planned, then their ability to then counter attack will severely suffer, which is worrying consider it’s their main effort of creating shots.
So what can Inter do? If they’re serious about the Scudetto. Invest in your midfield, specifically your number ten position. Marcelo Brozović is evidently an immensely talented player but needs game time to find any kind of rhythm.
While Inter’s Scudetto rivals will slow down offensively, so will Inter defensively. And thus far they’re not producing shot numbers at a title winning rate.
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