How did Juventus perform in the group stages of this year’s Champions League? I try breaking it down for you.
Tell Juventus fans that they would beat Manchester City home and away and finish second in the group and they would still believe you. I mean, we’re talking about a team who historically, along with most Italian teams, have consistently made it harder for themselves. After getting off to a storming start with a 2-1 win over the English giants at the Etihad, the bianconeri beat Sevilla 2-0 and dominated the majority of that game. With the group at their mercy, they went into back-to-back games with a struggling Borussia Moenchengladbach. In typical Italian fashion, Massimiliano Allegri’s side would pick up consecutive, underwhelming draws and fall behind Manchester City in the group with a game against the English side looming.
In that game, Juventus would demonstrate their European pedigree and beat them 1-0 in what was a rather even game. Once again, Juventus were in full control of the group but now had to travel to Spain to take on Sevilla. The mission? Avoid defeat. The result? Narrow defeat. And just like that, the Italian champions finished behind Manchester City in the group despite beating them twice and are now in danger of drawing one of Europe’s powerhouses in the round of sixteen. But just how good or bad did Juventus play in these group stages? I don’t want to waste anymore of your time so let’s dive right into this.
Juventus: By the numbers
Before we get into the advanced statistics, let’s take a look at how Juventus compared in basic statistical categories to the teams in their group. When looking at the possession stats, I was rather surprised. Juventus had the least amount of possession in the group (45.5%) despite being a side that overpowers sides in Italy with the ball consistently. Allegri, however, realized that in Europe you can’t always play champagne football and, at times, has set up Juventus to sit deep and counter like they did against Manchester City and away to Borussia Moenchengladbach. To be fair, it has produced results and we can’t forget that the Italian champions picked up a red card in the game against Germans forcing the former Milan boss’ hand.
Before we go any further, this is Michael Caley’s definition of expected goals and how he calculates the numbers below:
“xG: Expected goals scored or conceded based on shot type, assist type and shot location, speed of attack and a few more factors.”
Despite their lack of possession in games, Juventus did take the second most shots per game in the group highlighting their efficiency when in possession. While Manchester City topped the group in this respect with 18.2 shots per game, the bianconeri were not too far behind with 16.8 shots per game. The difference between the both sides is that the English giants scored twice the amount Juventus did due to the quality of chances they created. Manchester City’s xG total for the group stages was at 11.4, just 0.6 under what they actually produced while Juventus’ xG total was 8.4. Despite being outperformed by their English counterparts, their xG totals throughout the six games was reasonably higher than almost all of their opponents.
In only one group stage game did Juventus lose the “xG battle.” Yep, you guessed it. It was against Borussia Moenchengladbach when Hernanes got sent off. As a whole, Juventus xG against totals were 5.74, a difference of 2.66 to their xG for totals meaning they got the majority of the chances in most games. However, it also indicates that their defence over performed as they only conceded three goals instead of, well, 5.74 and their offence underperformed scoring six goals instead of, well, 8.4. All in all, these numbers were good enough for 11 points and second in the group.
Juventus’ player of the group stages – Gianluigi Buffon
Nop, it’s not Paul Pogba. The Frenchman put in decisive performances against Manchester City and Borussia Moenchengladbach picking up assists, but didn’t do it in all six games and when Juventus needed him most against Sevilla. By now, Pogba should be taking control of most games but he quite simply hasn’t. But let’s talk about Buffon, it’s funner anyways. The legendary shot-stopper was sublime between the sticks picking up three clean sheets and can account for a large part of Juventus’ over-performing defence. In both games against Manchester City (think: saves on Sterling and David Silva) and Borussia Moenchengladbach (think: Stindl’s header in the 78th minute), the 37-year-old was arguably the team’s best player keeping the opposition at bay. At 37 year’s young, Buffon is making a claim for being the best goalkeeper in the world. So, if people tell you he’s finished, stop talking to them and move on. You don’t need those people in your life.
Final word –
When Juventus conceded to Sevilla yesterday and City stormed back from 2-1 down, it was increasingly obvious that the Italian champions had made life harder for themselves and would finish second despite having more than once chance to finish as group leaders. Going into the draw on December 14th, Juventus will draw either Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Wolfsburg, Zenit, Atletico Madrid and one of Chelsea, Porto or Dynamo Kyiv. By no means, can these teams be called easy opponents. That said, the bianconeri’s performances in this season’s group stages have given me the impression that they can go toe-to-toe with just about anyone over two legs that isn’t called Bayern Munich and Barcelona mainly because of the European mentality that Allegri has instilled into the side. So fear not, Juventus fans, while finishing second isn’t exactly ideal, it’s not the end of the world.
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