Today, German giants Bayern Munich host Juventus at the Allianz Arena in the second and decisive leg of the Champions League Round of 16.
The stakes cannot be higher as Bayern Munich return home looking to put an end to Juventus’ European dream. The home leg saw the Bavarians dominate early, finding a goal with Mueller at the end of the first half, and with Robben adding a second after the break. But Juventus dug deep and showed character and courage to claw back the double deficit in some of the most exciting half hour of European football that the bianconeri played all season. The last time these two met at Allianz Bayern prevailed 2-0, but both teams were very different. A certain Antonio Conte was on the bianconeri’s sidelines while Mario Mandzukic, who is now a Juventus player, was leading the line for the Bavarians.
Form
Juventus (All Competitions) – DWLWW
After ending their 15-game winning streak shortly before meeting Bayern three weeks ago, Juventus have put on somewhat lacklustre performances in Milan (0-3 to Inter) and at home against Sassuolo (edging them 1-0). All things point to a Champions League “distraction”, although they would never admit to that. Before the scintillating first leg in Turin, Juventus closed the group stages with a narrow, undeserved loss to Sevilla. Prior to the defeat to the Spaniards, the bianconeri dispatched Manchester City by a score of 1-0. The truth is, however, that those games were a few months ago and don’t tell us much. What we do know is that the 21 men that Allegri called up will be revved to go when the referee blows the initial whistle. They better be, because news this morning from Vinovo spoke of three somewhat unexpected withdrawals from Juve’s squad: midfield wizard Claudio Marchisio, defensive rock Giorgio Chiellini and attacking threat Paulo Dybala.
Bayern Munich – DWLDW
Much like Juventus, the Germans have been in fantastic form over the past few months, but perhaps are under the “Champions Blues” as their form has dropped off since resuming the European top competition and have eroded their eight point lead to just five. Their Champions League form has been very similar to their Bundesliga form. Guardiola’s side finished their group stages with three convincing wins against Arsenal, Olympiacos and Dinamo Zagreb. Despite their long injury list, they host Juventus hoping for the same result as last time they were there. Given their current form and overall pedigree, you wouldn’t put it past them to achieve this.
Probable Formations
Juventus (4-4-2): Buffon; Lichtsteiner, Barzagli, Bonucci, Evra; Cuadrado, Khedira, Hernanes, Pogba; Mandzukic, Morata.
Bayern Munich (4-1-4-1): Neuer; Lahm, Kimmich, Benatia, Alaba; Vidal; Ribery, Muller, Thiago Alcantara, Douglas Costa; Lewandowski.
Tactical Battle
Allegri will likely go with his hybrid 4-4-2/4-3-3 formation against Bayern as he has enjoyed some success with it in Europe. In defence, the Italian champions will dare Bayern to try and penetrate their two banks of four. When they win possession, however, the bianconeri’s shape gets interesting. This is the case as Juan Cudrado pushes up. Morata’s call will be tall as Paulo Dybala is unique in his ability to “get between the (attack and midfield) lines”. Another important role will be played by Mario Mandzukic. The Croatian is crucial to Allegri’s setup as he offers an aerial outlet. Alvaro Morata will have to pull out his Champions League form and put on a magical performance if Juventus is to advance.
Trying to understand Guardiola’s tactics, on the other hand, is a different animal altogether. At Guardiola’s Bayern, his fullbacks traditionally get involved a lot. Against Juventus, this should be no different as Lahm and Alaba will be doubling up down the line with their respective wingers. As a result, a lot of the game will be decided on the wings where Douglas Costa and Frank Ribery will operate.
Talking about Bayern’s tactics and not discussing Thomas Muller would be a crime in itself. The German international, like Dybala, roams around the pitch freely and is always, and I mean always, in the right place at the right time. Juventus will need to nullify his influence if they are to have a chance at progressing in this tie.
Prediction
The last time these two met, one would expect Juventus to take advantage of Bayern’s absences in defence. And so it wasn’t. This time around, it’s collective attitude and spirit, more than men, that will make the difference. Juventus was not only overcautious but overwhelmed in the beginning. On the other hand, throwing caution to the wind and all-out-and-attacking Bayern would be equally foolish. I expect Juventus to play an attentive game, and be tentative at first up front. To try to keep possession for as long as possible and control game rhythm (Marchisio, or even Pirlo would have been great to have for games like these). A drawn out 0-0 match until 15-10 minutes from the end and a goal in the last minutes is probably in Juve’s game plan. Bayern will be Bayern, and if Juve let them, this could turn into a match in which four or more goals are scored.
Bayern Munich – Juventus (0-1)
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